Crypto analysts and experts have recently commented that there is an eight-day window between November 9 and November 17 for the approval of all spot Bitcoin ETF filings by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Quick Take:
- A brief window for spot Bitcoin ETF approval starts on November 9, 2023.
- The SEC could approve a bunch of filings at once to eliminate the first-mover advantage.
- Analysts believe there is a 90% chance of approval before January 10, next year.
Crypto analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have commented that there is a brief window for the approval of all 12 spot Bitcoin filings. The window begins tomorrow, November 9, 2023. However, the analysts noted that this is only a possibility, and there is no certainty that it will happen.
The approval could include the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and the BlackRock iShares Spot Bitcoin ETF. However, analysts believe that the SEC would be vigilant not to announce a single filing approval to avoid a first-mover advantage for any company.
Is Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval From the SEC on Cards?
There are 12 companies trying to get SEC approval for the first ever spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the United States. Nonetheless, there is a high chance that there could be a handful of approvals at the same time whenever the SEC decides to give it a go ahead.
Seyffart added,
“We think the SEC is going to try and allow most of not all of them to launch on the same day. They are not going to play kingmaker.”
Seyffart also stated that the final deadline for the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF is January 10, 2024. Therefore, it is unlikely that the SEC will deny ARK and approve other applications in March. As a result, there is a high chance for a decision in November or December of the ongoing year for 9 out of 12 applications.
The first window for approval begins tomorrow, as Seyffart stated,
“Delay orders were issued by the SEC for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity & Valkyrie at the same time. If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch—as we believe—this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed.”
The rationale behind this first approval window is that when the SEC extended the deadline for pending spot Bitcoin ETF filings, it chose November 8 as the last day of the comment period.
The comment period for Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF, and Franklin Bitcoin ETF would start again from November 17. Thus, these applications will not have a judgment until after November 23.
In a positive conclusion, Seyffart and Balchunas agree that there is a 90% chance of approval of these applications before January 10, 2024. The market is expected to react positively to the approval. Bitcoin has already gained 20% in October amid the optimism of a spot BTC ETF approval.
On the other hand, Grayscale has requested the SEC to convert its trust product GBTC into a spot BTC ETF. Analysts believe the crypto market could experience inflows of up to $100 billion in the next five years with this approval. This could be a major turning point for the digital asset market and its future in the long run.
